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National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine

HomeNewsOrganization of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine16.12.2022, 14:37

Zeitenwende: a premonition of the Great War?

History is not at all about the fatal inevitability, it is always about the choice of opportunities, conscious decisions, actions, and deeds, even when being squeezed by circumstances. Making our task easier, history will always give neat hints, place signs, and symbols. But today, more than ever before, with an unusual prognostic generosity, it boldly paints the letters of warning. Perhaps even the most patient teacher might be fed up with his efforts getting wasted. And that’s why a famous, almost banal saying about history that repeats itself the first time as a tragedy, the second as a farce, can get a different meaningful content – about history that repeats itself first as a tragedy, and then as a catastrophe.

It seems that humanity has come very close to the edge of ignored lessons. Unfortunately, Ukraine is a place for exams, and not only is our fate decided by the correctness of the answer: which direction should the world choose at this Ukrainian crossroads?

The chimera of the “anti-world”

Although there are no complete historical analogies, such as a German tank in Ukraine in 1941, it is not at all the same as a German tank in 2022, but certain processes tend to repeat. In this case, one can long argue about the intricacies of definitions in the classification of the modern Russian regime, but it is impossible not to notice the obvious signs of modern Russia’s similarity with Germany in the period of formation of national fascism. The question of the threat of Russia’s transformation into one of the modifications of the fascist-type state moves from journalism to reality. And as already mentioned above, nothing has a complete analogy, so the situation in the case of Russia is even worse since we are dealing with the birth of a hybrid, modernized version of totalitarianism, which was rightly called the ideology of ruscism, with all the latest civilizational achievements at its service. The further fate of this chimera of the “anti-world”, which hatched from the Kremlin’s Easter egg, lies at the Ukrainian crossroads.

What should history have taught us?

But all this happened already before. In such a way, with European governments being silent and dormant, the Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler was born, matured, and pumped up its SS muscles in the 1930s. In such a way, in the late 20th and early 21st century, the West, convinced of its final victory over the most disgusting dictatorships in history, allowed the gradual reincarnation of Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime of “Russkiy mir” on the ruins of the USSR.

Today, if someone thinks that it’s only about Ukraine, that’s a mistake. The question is about the threat of the birth of a new anti-human and anti-humanist regime, a chimera of the fusion of Nazism and Communist Bolshevism. A regime with global not regional ambitions, no matter how someone might want the latter. The Ukrainian War of Independence can only be a prologue to the Great War if humanity has not learned anything and the death of millions was in vain.

What should history have taught us:

And most importantly:

But it’s not enough to win, it’s necessary to “cure” society and the state according to a strict protocol for those affected by the disease of totalitarianism – de-ruscization, awareness and acceptance of collective guilt and national repentance, study, consolidation, and constant repetition of lessons learned.

And if we don’t take into account what our recent history almost screams to us about, and step on all the same forbidden rakes – to agree, deal, get scared, fall for, and retreat – then catastrophe awaits right outside the door.

The formula of a “draw” in the war, to which certain figures are urging us, is a strategic gain for Russia. The formula for a temporary truce is a win for Russia. A peace formula without the full return of territories and compensation for damages is a win for Russia.

Failure to end the war in Ukraine with the victory of Ukraine will lead to a guaranteed revanchist transformation in Russia, its final transformation into a totalitarian dictatorship.

Is Russia ready for this?

A country that did not reconsider its own historical experience, did not condemn the past, and did not repent – remained a country of Stalin, the Gulag, and snitches. Is such a country ready to drown the world in the darkness of global war and nuclear disaster? In my opinion, this question is completely rhetorical.

It is ready and will do so if the Russian Federation is given time to complete the transformational transition – complete nationalization of all sectors of the economy, most possible militarization of society, the absolute priority for the defense industry, the final sweeping of freedom of information and expression, discarding any fig leaves of democracy, banning elections, parties, various councils, ideological pumping of society. And the most important thing is the formation of the “Union of Dictatorships” as an attempt to radically restructure the world through the destruction of the democratic leadership of the West.

In their efforts to preserve their unlimited power, Putin and Russia are ready to drag the world into the Great War, because they, like martyrs, will go to heaven, and everyone else “will simply die”.

But this quite obvious scenario of the future can be changed. And Ukraine is the key link in the center of choice. This is not the first time or the second time. “Ukraine is in the absolute center…It is in the center of the First and Second World Wars, in the center of Stalin’s terror, the Holocaust, in the center of the collapse of the Soviet Union”. Can someone argue with Timothy Snyder here?

Change the scenario of the future

The scenario of the future should and must be changed, the inevitability of the Great War can be buried by burying Putin’s regime. Unfortunately, the world gave birth to the monster of Russian fascism, but it is within our power to destroy it, preventing it from strengthening to the stage where it will become a threat to humanity.

And if in 1991 we had the opportunity to observe the first stage of the disintegration of the Russian imperial entity, then on February 24, 2022, the second final stage of its liquidation came, and it is in our power to launch the third final stage – the deconstruction of the Russian pseudo-federation.

For this, Ukraine must be armed with modern military equipment and means that have achieved parity in terms of fire damage capabilities and surpassed the Russian army in this regard. Ukrainian air defense and anti-missile defense, which left no chance for the Russian enemy to strike critical infrastructure. Armed forces that can strike the enemy at a distance from Moscow to Vladivostok. Well-trained and equipped Ukrainian warriors who completely liberated the territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991. Destruction of a critical number of the Russian military, public humiliation of the Kremlin, debunking of myths about Russian “power”, and stagnation of the Russian economy, which will lead to global and inevitable domestic political changes.

And if someone tells you that it’s impossible, don’t believe it and don’t be afraid! The world was afraid of the collapse of the USSR and didn’t believe in Ukraine’s independence. Both happened. The world was sure that Russia would not dare to unleash a full-scale war in the center of Europe and was convinced that Ukraine would fall in 2-3 days. It was wrong both in the first and the second case. “Events that one could imagine that they will never happen, they are happening one after the other… The speed and scope of change is exceptional...We have a difficult cocktail – internal and external – and the old recipes do not work anymore” – one should repeat constantly those words by Josep Borell.


Ukraine’s victory will mean the inevitable delegitimization of Putin’s regime, internal destabilization, and the beginning of centrifugal tendencies. Many times I said and am ready to repeat once again: “The best guarantee of security for Ukraine and the world is the deputization, denuclearization, and demilitarization of the Russian Federation, the dismantling of its pseudo-federal entity, the formation of independent republics – Tatarstan, Ichkeria, Siberia, the Far East, the South and the North of Russia!”.

Right now is the time of that same turning point – Zeitenwende, the word of the year in Germany, which should become the word of action in 2023.