Oleksandr Turchynov: The Kremlin’s two scenarios against Ukraine
To achieve its goals, the Russian Federation is actively using the tools of hybrid war. This was stated by NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov at a press conference.
Analyzing the modern methods and forms of hybrid war, Mr. Turchynov reported that hybrid war, on the one hand, is "an independent paradigm of warfighting, and on the other, it may be considered as a complex of measures of the pre-war period preceding the outset of the planned large-scale military aggression".
"This refers primarily to the disruption and destruction of the whole complex of social relations in the object of aggression, suppression of its will to resist", - he said adding that one should remember this today, "when full-blown destabilization is the key tool of the Russian aggression against our state".
Oleksandr Turchynov explained that, apart from attempts of military occupation "everything comes to play - from corruption and organized crime, supported by the professional arsenal of Russian secret services, to cyber and information warfare".
"Russia's secret services have intensified their activities in radical environments and seek to direct often justified dissatisfaction of people to the destruction of the state", - he noticed.
Mr. Turchynov added that trying to conquer Ukraine the Kremlin both in the nearest future and in the long view may implement one of the two main scenarios - the war scenario or the so-called hybrid scenario.
"The war scenario involves a full-scale military aggression, which is currently the most problematic and dangerous for the Kremlin itself, but the Russian Federation is preparing hard for it, in particular, deploying extra military units near the borders and in the occupied territory of Ukraine", - he said.
The second - hybrid - scenario, according to Mr. Turchynov, is the most likely one and includes the continuation of low-intensity hostilities in Donbas, "which, however, does not exclude the possibility of local offensives of the Russian regular and irregular units as well as and subversive activities in the rest of the territory of Ukraine"."It is important to realize the danger of the situation today when the situation in the East has aggravated significantly. The Russians not only increased the number of shellings but also use ORDLO as a proving ground for testing new types of weapons and modern tactical maneuvers", - the NSDC Secretary added.